● FIANNAINDUSTRY REPORT · US AUTO RETAIL2026 EDITION

FIANNA·AI

// Fianna Intelligence · National Brief · 2026

The State of
the Dealer.

Where the money actually is in US auto retail, where it leaks, and the eight operator archetypes that win — and lose — differently.

EditionPublic · 2026BasisFY24/25 10-Ks · NADA 2025Market$1.3T · 16,990 rooftopsPrepared byFianna · Loperfido × Benedict

FIANNA·AI

// Executive Brief · The Eight That Matter

The headline.

A $1.3T, ~16,990-rooftop market in a margin regime change. New-vehicle front gross fell to ~$2,247/unit (−33%); the store now lives on F&I + fixed-ops.

The showroom is the loud room; the service drive pays the bills. Absorption is the survival metric — industry ~68% vs a 100%+ target.

~$15–23B/yr in recoverable waste — and service-retention is the #1 leak in nearly every archetype, ahead of lead-capture.

A consolidating barbell — 7 public mega-groups + ~15 mega-privates (the biggest, Hendrick, is private); thousands of single-rooftop family stores. Buy-sell ~2× pre-pandemic.

Pain ≠ warm. Deepest pain = mass-import (Nissan/Hyundai/CDJR). Warmest = luxury family groups. The market splits into distinct operator archetypes.

The OEM contract dictates the game — holdback, stair-step cliffs, CSI-gated incentives (Genesis ~8% vs ~2% Hyundai, gated by CSI), allocation.

Transparency is coming, unevenly. One-price selling is rising; the human case is strong, the economic case conditional — margin relocates, it doesn't vanish.

The winners will be data-instrumented. The stores that capture a clean baseline and run on telemetry will out-operate the rest.

FIANNA·AI

// Section 01 · The Macro State

A market living on the quiet rooms.

$1.3T

total sales

16,990

franchised rooftops

$2,247

new gross/unit · −33%

~50%

of gross = fixed-ops

68%

absorption (vs 100%)

The margin shift. Front-end new gross is in free-fall (AutoNation $4,342→$3,045→$2,564, FY23→25). Fixed-ops (55–80% labor margin) + F&I (~100% margin, $2,200–2,800 PVR) now ≈ 71% of US gross. Floor-plan interest ~10×'d post-2023.

Ownership. Public mega-groups led by Lithia ($37.6B / 953k units), then Penske, AutoNation, Group 1, Asbury, Sonic, + Carvana buying franchises. Mega-privates: Hendrick (~93 rooftops), Berkshire, Morgan, Garff. Top-150 ≈ 27% of units. Blue-sky K-shaped — luxury/Toyota 6–10×, distressed CDJR/Nissan 2.5–3.25×.

~90% of dealer AI spend chases new-car lead conversion — the thinnest, fastest-shrinking line. The money is in the quiet rooms.

FIANNA·AI

// Section 02 · The Field

Eight ways to win. Eight ways to bleed.

Categorized by margin engine — where the money comes from — not by brand. Each archetype has its own KPIs, its own direct comps, its own dominant leak. The deep-dives follow.

#	Archetype	Wins by	Top leak / roof	Pain
1	Luxury franchise	fixed-ops + CPO + CSI	service-to-sales	healthy
2	Mass-import franchise	volume + F&I + service	$0.99–1.08M	high
3	Domestic Big-3	trucks + fixed-ops	$0.8M retention	mid
4	Distressed / stair-step	the volume cliff	F&I + reactivation	acute
5	Independent used-only	velocity + F&I	days-to-turn	fragile
6	Service-centric	absorption	absorption gap	sticky
7	CSI-gated (Genesis)	conditional incentive	valet/CSI	unique
8	Mega-group rooftop	scale + standardized stack	rep-execution	warm-only

FIANNA·AI

// Deep-Dive · Archetype 01

Luxury franchise.

Margin engine: fixed-ops + CPO + CSI/loyalty money. New-car gross is healthy but the absorption + service drive carry the store. healthy → optimize, don't rescue

$1.3M

recoverable/roof

78%

absorption

$5,679

new gross/unit

OEM contract

Variable AVP holdback (Audi/BMW), rich co-op + loyalty + CPO money (~25% penetration). CSI tied to allocation + incentives.

KPI scorecard

KPI	are	comp	could-be
Absorption	70%	80%	110%
Service retention	38%	50%	65%
CPO penetration	25%	25%	40%

The fix · ROI-ranked

Service-to-sales retention (#8) + maintenance alerts (#4) + CSI protection — overlay the DMS, no rip-and-replace. Lead with sovereignty (owned instance) for the breach-sensitized.

Archetype example: a flagship metro luxury group — 10+ rooftops, fixed-ops-led.

FIANNA·AI

// Deep-Dive · Archetype 02

Mass-import franchise.

Margin engine: volume + F&I + a deep service base (Toyota/Honda/Hyundai/Kia/Subaru). Thin front gross — made up on throughput, F&I, and keeping the cars coming back. highest realized $ — and the biggest leak

$2.0M

recoverable/roof

$990K

retention leak

$2,600

F&I PVR (runs high)

OEM contract

2–3% holdback (Toyota/Honda 2%, Hyundai 3%), stair-step volume exposure, strong service/warranty base.

KPI scorecard

KPI	are	comp	could-be
Units / salesperson / mo	9	11	14
Speed-to-lead	60m	30m	<5m
Service retention	35%	44%	60%

The fix · ROI-ranked

Service-retention (#2/#4) is the biggest dollar; then F&I prep (#5), then speed-to-lead routing + follow-up (#3/#6). The chatbot (#1) is the easy land.

The volume of money lives here — ~3–4k rooftops. The land-and-expand lane.

FIANNA·AI

// Deep-Dive · Archetype 03

Domestic Big-3.

Margin engine: trucks/volume + fixed-ops + warranty labor (Ford/GM/Stellantis). Regional truck/SUV mix is the swing variable. mid pain

$1.6M

recoverable/roof

$800K

retention leak

$1,952

new gross/unit

OEM contract

~3% holdback (Stellantis), stair-step + glut exposure, heavy warranty-labor service mix.

KPI scorecard

KPI	are	comp	could-be
Truck/SUV mix vs region	−	match	+match
Absorption	66%	75%	100%
CP vs warranty mix	−	bal.	CP↑

The fix · ROI-ranked

Reactivation + service-retention + customer-pay shift; demand-matched ordering on the truck mix (predictive procurement).

Archetype example: a regional domestic dealer — truck mix + service-retention reactivation.

FIANNA·AI

// Deep-Dive · Archetype 04

Distressed / stair-step.

Margin engine: hitting the volume cliff + reactivation (Nissan / CDJR / Hyundai-PEP). The bonus is binary at the objective; below-objective selling destroys gross. acute pain — the rescue lane

$1.7M

recoverable/roof

$810K

retention

$567K

F&I attach

OEM contract

Stair-step cliffs (Nissan One $500/$1,000 tiers; Hyundai PEP retroactive-to-unit-1). Glut > 2× supply. Margin compression.

KPI scorecard

KPI	are	comp	could-be
Objective attainment	92%	100%	110%+
Dead-DB reactivation	$0	med.	$50–200K/mo
Days-supply (glut)	90+	60	45

The fix · ROI-ranked

Dead-DB reactivation (#6) — recover $50–200K/mo, zero new ad spend; speed-to-lead (#3) + F&I (#5). The 30-day "no contract until it pays" wedge.

Archetype example: a high-volume import store in a glutted market — among the largest single-store leaks we model.

FIANNA·AI

// Deep-Dive · Archetype 05

Independent used-only.

Margin engine: used gross + F&I, with no OEM money and no warranty-service base. It's all velocity. structurally fragile — the control group that proves the thesis

$1,986

gross/used (comp)

<3 days

recon target

$2,700

F&I could-be

The reality

No absorption, no CSI, no allocation. Buy right, recon fast, turn faster, never overpay a trade — or die. The Velocity Engine + Recycle floor target this directly.

KPI scorecard

KPI	are	comp	could-be
Days-to-turn	45	35	25
% aged 60+ days	25%	15%	8%
F&I PVR	$1,800	$2,300	$2,700

The fix · ROI-ranked

Liquidity pricing + buyer-match (#7/#9 → Velocity Engine), aged-unit reactivation, lender-routed F&I (#5). Dead tail → Recycle & Recover floor.

FIANNA·AI

// Deep-Dive · Archetype 06

Service / fixed-ops-centric.

Margin engine: absorption — the service + parts operation pays for the whole store. stickiest, most recurring — the moat archetype

100%+

absorption target

55–80%

labor gross margin

$186

eff. labor rate

KPI scorecard

KPI	are	comp	could-be
Absorption	68%	80%	100%+
ROs / store / yr	−	16,252	↑
CP retention	30%	44%	60%

The fix · ROI-ranked

Maintenance alerts (#4) + scheduling (#2) + retention — drive absorption to 100%+, where every car sold is pure profit. The most defensible dollar in the building.

FIANNA·AI

// Deep-Dive · Archetype 07

CSI-gated · agency-flavored.

Margin engine: a conditional incentive gated by CSI (Genesis). The brand pays ~8% of MSRP vs ~2% for Hyundai — but only to dealers compliant on facility, EV-cert, and CSI. CSI is a GATE, not a metric

~8%

incentive (vs 2% Hyundai)

~$3,600

/car gated by CSI

$130K

recoverable/roof

The contract

Circle of Prestige scoring: 45% sales · 20% parts · 12.5% GBX · 12.5% GSX · 10% CPO — gated by a 200-unit floor + CSI ≥ national average on both surveys. A sub-average survey stream can disqualify you from the conditional 8%.

KPI scorecard

KPI	are	comp	could-be
GBX / GSX (CSI)	−	≥ nat'l avg	pass + buffer
Valet on-time	phone	−	1-tap
Circle of Prestige	won '24	−	defend

The fix · ROI-ranked

Valet scheduling (#2) + CSI-risk prediction (#4) — protect the survey that gates the incentive. The math no other vendor will show them.

Archetype example: a Genesis point defending Circle-of-Prestige status — the survey gates the incentive.

FIANNA·AI

// Deep-Dive · Archetype 08

Mega-group rooftop.

Margin engine: scale + a standardized stack + a group CDP (the mega-groups + publics). Has group intelligence but a store-level rep-execution gap. reachable by warm intro only

70+

rooftops (large group)

$10B+

run-rate

high

procurement wall

The motion

Procurement + IT-security gauntlet = avoid as a cold target. Two plays: a warm single-rooftop rep-cockpit pilot, or a group-level conversation on the CDP→store-execution gap.

The fix · ROI-ranked

Per-rep cockpit pilot on top of the existing group data (e.g. automotiveMastermind) — "you bought the predictive data; we make it act." Single-rooftop proof first.

Archetype example: a rooftop inside a top-150 mega-group — single-rooftop pilot beats the procurement wall.

FIANNA·AI

// Section 03 · Where The Money Leaks

The $15–23 billion left on the floor.

Service-retention dominates (≈ half the recoverable) — dealers keep ~30% of service visits vs ~44% industry; every 5 points lifts profit 25–95%.
F&I attach — a ~10-point gap at ~$2,300/deal, ~100% margin. Mass-market buyers finance more than luxury.
Speed-to-lead — 5-min reply closes 25–32%; an hour closes 3–5%; ~1 in 3 web leads never gets a reply.
Used-velocity — ~20% of a used lot ages 90+ days; carrying + decay compound, worst when brand mix fights regional demand.

$156B service+parts × ~55% margin ≈ $86B fixed-ops gross. A 10% retention lift ≈ $8.6B — half the national leak, from the room nobody's automating.

FIANNA·AI

// Section 04 · The Next Three Years

Where it's heading — and what we do.

Transparency (one-price, instant-OTD, fair-trade) relocates margin to match-precision + fixed-ops + honest F&I.
Consumer AI buying agents shift the salesperson from price-gatekeeper to educator/orchestrator.
EV margin compression + agency pressure — a tailwind for the owned-OS narrative.
Consolidation — groups buy revenue-per-rooftop; the OS that lifts each acquired store is what they value.
Instrumentation — the data-managed store out-operates the rest. What gets measured gets managed.

What it means for Fianna

Sell to groups, two lanes — luxury-family for the case study, mass-import/regional for the volume of money. Lead with the leak we can prove (service-retention), sovereignty (owned instance), the owned cockpit + GM Jarvis, and gain-share alignment — we share only in growth above your market, above your best year.

// The first step

Measuring performance and enriching your data with AI is the first step. Book an audit to see why it's worth the price of admission. → audit.fianna.ai · or drop your number below and we'll reach out.

// Book an audit

Measuring performance & enriching your data with AI is the first step. Book an audit to see why it's worth the price of admission.

The State ofthe Dealer.

The headline.

A market living on the quiet rooms.

Eight ways to win. Eight ways to bleed.

Luxury franchise.

OEM contract

KPI scorecard

Mass-import franchise.

OEM contract

KPI scorecard

Domestic Big-3.

OEM contract

KPI scorecard

Distressed / stair-step.

OEM contract

KPI scorecard

Independent used-only.

The reality

KPI scorecard

Service / fixed-ops-centric.

KPI scorecard

CSI-gated · agency-flavored.

The contract

KPI scorecard

Mega-group rooftop.

The motion

The $15–23 billion left on the floor.

Where it's heading — and what we do.

What it means for Fianna

The State of
the Dealer.